Progress towards HIV transmission elimination targets: model-based estimation of incidence and the extent of undiagnosed infection, Scotland, 1981 to 2022.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUNDThe global goal to end the AIDS epidemic cannot be achieved without estimates of incidence and undiagnosed infection.AIMWe aimed to estimate the timing of HIV transmission events and the number of people unaware of their diagnosis in Scotland, by mode of acquisition and migrant status.METHODSSurveillance data from Scotland's national HIV diagnosis database (1981-2022) linked to death and migration data was entered into the HIV Platform tool of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, to back-calculate HIV incidence while imputing missing data and adjusting for reporting delay.RESULTSWe estimated 8,235 HIV transmission events between 1980 and 2022 among people living in Scotland, with an 80% reduction from 2010 to 2021 (258 to 52 events). Excluding people diagnosed

SUBMITTER: McDonald SA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12432492 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature