Predicting tuberculosis progression in school contacts: novel host biomarkers for early risk assessment.

ABSTRACT: The low positive predictive value of tuberculin skin tests and interferon-γ release assays often results in unnecessary prophylaxis. This study aimed to identify antigen-specific biomarkers with high accuracy for predicting progression to active tuberculosis (ATB). QuantiFERON supernatants from a school tuberculosis outbreak cohort were analyzed, tracking students over two years to identify ATB cases. We assessed 67 cytokines using the Luminex Multiplex Array kit and applied LASSO and multivariate logistic regression to select predictors. A nomogram was developed from the coefficients of top predictors. Model performance was evaluated by AUC, C-index, and AIC. The levels of FGFbasic, GM-CSF, MPIF-1/CCL23, as well as the combinations of ratios of FGFbasic/GM-CSF and FGFbasic/MPIF-1/CCL23 we

SUBMITTER: Lu P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12434022 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature