Increased global subseasonal whiplash by future BSISO behavior.

ABSTRACT: Propagation patterns of 30- to 90-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) markedly affect subseasonal prediction. We show that global warming significantly alters BSISO propagation by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 projections. Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 scenario, the eastward mode's expansion propagation speed shows a twofold increase from 5.1 ± 1.9 to 10.3 ± 2.0 meters per second by the late 21st century, with a remarkable eastward extension by ~30° longitude compared to the present climate. The accelerated eastward mode frequency is expected to rise by 15%, intensifying subseasonal precipitation whiplash worldwide and shortening disaster preparedness time. This acceleration results from an asymmetric pattern of boundary layer moisture converg

SUBMITTER: Cheng TF 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12442846 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature