Clinical Impact of Continuation Versus Cessation of Antiviral Therapy in Chronic Hepatitis B: A Modelling Study With Implications for Hepatitis B Cure.

ABSTRACT: Discontinuing antivirals in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) 'e' antigen negative infection can enhance HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) loss but risks complications. We modelled the clinical impact of discontinuing antivirals in chronic HBV. We developed a Markov state model with Monte Carlo simulation of chronic HBV to compare continuation of antiviral therapy with 3 strategies of cessation and reinitiation for: (1) virologic relapse, (2) clinical relapse, or (3) hepatitis flare. We simulated the probability of virologic relapse as an exponential decay function from the time of antiviral cessation. We used literature-based estimates for input probabilities following virologic relapse: clinical relapse (60%, conditional on virologic relapse), hepatitis flare (57%, conditional on clinical relaps

SUBMITTER: Mohareb AM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12444364 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature