Modeling the transmission dynamics and control strategies during the 2017 diphtheria outbreak in Jakarta, Indonesia.

ABSTRACT: Diphtheria has resurged globally, including in Indonesia, despite widespread vaccination since the 1970s. Knowledge gaps persist in understanding contemporary transmission drivers and effective outbreak control, especially in densely populated areas like Jakarta. We analyzed the 2017 Jakarta outbreak data and developed a compartmental model incorporating estimates of population susceptibility and asymptomatic carriers. Key epidemiological parameters were estimated, and various control measures were simulated. Our study found overall diphtheria susceptibility at 12.9 % (95 % CrI: 8.6 %-19.0 %) and 28.0 % (95 % CrI: 20.5 %-36.0 %) in children under 5 under different modeling scenarios, which were below the 'herd immunity threshold'. We estimated asymptomatic carriers to be highly prevalent,

SUBMITTER: Djaafara BA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12454891 | biostudies-literature | 2026 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature