Estimating Population Immunity and Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in Washington State and Oregon.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) mRNA vaccine showed high clinical efficacy against the ancestral variant, but immunological waning, emergence of new variants, and the durability of infection-induced immunity complicate the estimation of population-level effectiveness. We used mathematical modeling to calculate the proportion of hospitalizations averted by vaccination in Washington and Oregon.

Methods

We used an age- and region-structured compartmental model of vaccine-induced and infection-induced immunity from January 2020 until December 2022. We parameterized the strength and durability of immunity via a meta-regression of vaccine efficacy. We calibrated a time-varying contact matrix to weekly hospitalizations reported by the Was

SUBMITTER: Moore M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12456170 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature