Forecasting protein evolution by integrating birth-death population models with structurally constrained substitution models.

ABSTRACT: Evolutionary studies in population genetics and ecology were mainly focused on predicting and understanding past evolutionary events. Recently, however, a growing trend explores the prediction of evolutionary trajectories toward the future promoted by its wide variety of applications. In this context, we introduce a forecasting protein evolution method that integrates birth-death population models with substitution models that consider selection on protein folding stability. In contrast to traditional population genetics methods that usually make the unrealistic assumption of simulating molecular evolution separately from the evolutionary history, the present method combines both processes to simultaneously model forward-in-time birth-death evolutionary trajectories and protein evolution u

SUBMITTER: Ferreiro D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12459951 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature