Impacts of US Bilateral Aid Disruptions on HIV Resurgence in Zambia: A Mathematical Modeling Study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Of countries with high HIV prevalence, Zambia had the largest proportion of funding to its HIV program from the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR)-84% at the start of 2025. Abrupt withdrawal of bilateral aid in January 2025 disrupted HIV services. This study aimed to estimate the health and epidemiological consequences of the disruptions, and to what extent impacts could be mitigated by restoring services.

Methods

We leveraged a previously developed HIV agent-based network transmission model, Epidemiological MODeling software for HIV, calibrated to Zambian HIV data at the provincial level. Health authorities leading the Zambian HIV program identified data and assumptions regarding impacts of aid disruptions by province and associated

SUBMITTER: Mulenga LB 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12461847 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature