Modeling the impact of changing drug markets and structural determinants on HCV and/or HIV transmission among people who inject drugs in the United States: A rural and urban comparison.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The impact of changing drug use patterns on hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HIV incidence among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the US is understudied.

Methods

An HCV and HIV transmission model was calibrated to urban and rural area data (San Diego, CA and Central/Northern Wisconsin). Fentanyl use among PWID was assumed to increase mortality and injecting-related risk of HIV and HCV based on San Diego data. We predicted HCV/HIV incidence with recent trends (in fentanyl use, transition from injecting to smoking drugs, opiate agonist treatment (OAT) and incarceration), and scenarios with no trend changes since 2020. We calculated the population attributable fraction of fentanyl on incidence, comparing to a no fentanyl counterfactual from 2015 to 2025.

Results

H

SUBMITTER: Martin NK 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12462694 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature