Time Series Analysis of Dengue, Zika, and Chikungunya in Ecuador: Emergence Patterns, Epidemiological Interactions, and Climate-Driven Dynamics (1988-2024).

ABSTRACT: Background: Ecuador presents a unique epidemiological laboratory for studying arboviral dynamics due to its diverse ecological zones and exposure to climatic variability. Methods: We conducted a comprehensive 36-year analysis (1988-2024) of dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), and chikungunya (CHIKV) using national surveillance data from Ecuador's Ministry of Public Health. Statistical analyses included time series decomposition, change-point detection, correlation analysis, and climate association studies. Results: Ecuador reported 387,543 arboviral cases, with dengue comprising 91.3% (353,782 cases). Dengue exhibited endemic-epidemic cycles with major peaks during El Niño events (1994: 10,247 cases; 2000: 22,937 cases; 2015: 42,483 cases; 2024: 23,156 cases through week 26).

SUBMITTER: Sanchez JD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12474222 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature