Climate Change Impact on Human-Rodent Interfaces: Modeling Junin Virus Reservoir Shifts.

ABSTRACT: The drylands vesper mouse (Calomys musculinus) is the primary host for Junin mammarenavirus (JUNV), the etiological agent of Argentine hemorrhagic fever in humans. We assessed the potential distribution of C. musculinus and identified disease transmission hotspots under current climatic conditions and projected future scenarios, including severe (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) climate change scenarios in 2050 and 2070. Utilizing tree-based machine learning algorithms, we modeled C. musculinus distribution by incorporating bioclimatic and landscape predictors. The model showed strong performance, achieving F-scores between 80.22 and 83.09%. Key predictors indicated that C. musculinus prefers warm temperatures, moderate a

SUBMITTER: Flores-Perez N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12476445 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature