Projecting Global Trends and Inequalities in Adult Overweight and Obesity, 2023-2040: Findings From the NCD-RisC Database.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

This study quantifies the global burden of overweight and obesity, projects future trends, and examines associated health inequalities.

Methods

Overweight and obesity burden data were obtained from the NCD-RisC database. Trends from 1990 to 2022 were analyzed, and a Bayesian model was used to project changes for 2023-2040. Cross-national health inequalities were measured using the slope index of inequality (SII) and the relative concentration index (RCI).

Results

Globally, overweight prevalence rose from 17.50% in 1990 to 28.00% in 2022 (average annual percentage change [AAPC] = 1.48%) and is projected to reach 43.97% by 2040 (AAPC = 1.13%). Obesity prevalence grew from 6.44% to 16.06% (AAPC = 2.46%) and is projected to surge to 38.96% by 2040 (AAPC = 4.96%)

SUBMITTER: Liu J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12477102 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature