The effect of probability and framing on the default effect in decision making under risk.

ABSTRACT: This study examines how probability and outcome framing modulate the default effect in risky decision-making using two controlled experiments with probabilistically equivalent lotteries. Participants repeatedly chose among four equivalent betting options, with one highlighted as a default. Across both studies (N = 317), we document a robust default effect, with 38-39% choosing defaults versus a 25% random benchmark. Crucially, low winning probability (25% vs. 75%) consistently amplified default reliance. However, loss framing increased default choices significantly only in Study 1 (where task descriptions differed across probabilities) but not in Study 2 (where task framing was standardized). This suggests winning probability is a more reliable moderator than framing. Post-experiment surve

SUBMITTER: Lanier J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12480121 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature