Dengue epidemic alert thresholds for surveillance and decision-making in Puerto Rico: development and prospective application of an early warning system using routine surveillance data.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

The Puerto Rico Department of Health (PRDH) seeks to identify dengue epidemics as early as possible with high specificity.

Design

Development and prospective application of an early warning system for dengue epidemics using routine historical surveillance data. A weekly intercept-only negative binomial regression model was fitted using historical probable and confirmed dengue data. A range of threshold definitions was explored using three model-estimated percentiles of weekly dengue case counts.

Setting

Dengue is endemic in Puerto Rico with irregular occurrence of large epidemics with substantial impact on health burden and health systems. Probable and confirmed dengue data are routinely collected from all hospitals and private clinics.

Participants

SUBMITTER: Thayer MB 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12481368 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature