Forecasting impact of demographic changes on the expenditures of healthcare and social security in Italy from 2022 to 2060.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Europe's demographic transition has led to an ageing population, posing challenges for healthcare and pension systems. This study aims to forecast healthcare and social security expenditure in Italy over the next four decades, starting from the different population projection scenarios, and to forecast its incidence on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the context of significant demographic changes.

Methods

This study utilized annual data from 1988 to 2022. The dataset included the following key variables: GDP per capita, Healthcare Expenditures per capita, Social Security Expenses per capita, Ratio of Social Security Expenses and Healthcare Expenditures to GDP, and Italian Population Demographics. A Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model was employed to analyze t

SUBMITTER: Conrado F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12482820 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature