Analysis and forecast of hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemic trends in Guangzhou, China, 2013-2023.

ABSTRACT: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) primarily affects children under the age of five and has emerged as a significant public health concern in China. This study examines HFMD incidence trends across various gender and age demographics in Guangzhou from 2013 to 2023, providing a comprehensive overview to inform future prevention and management strategies. Utilizing epidemiological data from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System, we employed Joinpoint regression modeling to assess variations in incidence rates among different demographic cohorts and developed a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to analyze case trends and project future occurrences. The findings revealed biennial peaks and notable seasonality, indicating cases

SUBMITTER: Luo H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12483251 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature