The decision uncertainty toolkit: Risk measures and visual outputs to support decision making during public health crises.

ABSTRACT:

Background

During public health crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, decision-makers relied on infectious disease models to evaluate policy options. Often, there is a high degree of uncertainty in the evidence base underpinning these models. When there is increased uncertainty, the risk of selecting a policy option that does not align with the intended policy objective also increases; we term this decision risk. Even when models adequately capture uncertainty, the tools used to communicate their outcomes, underlying uncertainty, and associated decision risk have often been insufficient. Our aim is to support infectious disease modellers and decision-makers in interpreting and communicating decision risk when evaluating multiple policy options.

Methods

We developed the Decis

SUBMITTER: Wiggins M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12488006 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature