Predictability of infectious disease outbreak severity: Chikungunya as a case study.

ABSTRACT: A single pathogen can cause outbreaks of varying size and duration in different populations. Anticipating severe outbreaks would facilitate public health preparedness, but the extent to which this is possible is unclear. We conducted a data-driven investigation into the predictability of outbreak severity, using chikungunya virus (CHIKV) as a case study. For mosquito-transmitted viruses like CHIKV, the potential for severe outbreaks is often assessed using climate-based estimates of the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text] . We derived a large set of [Formula: see text] estimates for CHIKV by fitting a mechanistic model to data from 86 chikungunya outbreaks. These [Formula: see text] estimates were weakly predicted by climatic and other factors. Among deterministic drivers of out

SUBMITTER: Meyer AD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12494021 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature