Validation of VaxEstim, a Bayesian model for rapid estimation of measles-mumps-rubella vaccination coverage at outbreak onset: a cross-sectional study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Accurate estimation of vaccination coverage at the onset of an outbreak is critical for guiding timely public health responses. Conventional methods often rely on delayed or incomplete data that obscure immunity gaps. During the 2022-2023 central Ohio measles outbreak, Columbus Public Health estimated measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) coverage at 80-90% despite incomplete reporting. Martoma et al. developed VaxEstim, a statistical model that generated an early estimate of two-dose MMR coverage in the outbreak-exposed population at 53.0% (95% credible interval [CrI] 21.0-77.0) using limited publicly available case-based data. A subsequent epidemiological investigation by Martoma et al. defined the outbreak-exposed population as children <15 years of age, of Somali

SUBMITTER: Martoma RA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12495345 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature