Global, regional and national burden of chikungunya: force of infection mapping and spatial modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Chikungunya virus, an arbovirus transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, causes epidemics in tropical regions with potential risk in higher latitudes. Our aim is to estimate the global, regional and national burden of chikungunya across affected and environmentally suitable at-risk regions.

Methods

We used a random forest model to predict force of infection and estimate chikungunya burden at high spatial resolution (5×5 km) using covariates from climatic, socioeconomic and ecological domains. We used a focal scenario to estimate the observed burden (lower bound) and an at-risk scenario to estimate the potential burden (upper bound) of chikungunya transmission.

Results

We predicted global long-term average annual force of infection at 0.012 (95% UI: 0.007 t

SUBMITTER: Kang H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12506043 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature