A district-level ensemble model to enhance dengue prediction and control for the Mekong Delta Region of Vietnam.

ABSTRACT: The Mekong Delta Region (MDR) of Vietnam faces increasing vulnerability to severe dengue outbreaks due to urbanization, globalization, and climate change, necessitating effective early warning systems for outbreak mitigation. This study developed a probabilistic forecasting model to predict dengue incidence and outbreaks with 1-3-month lead times, incorporating meteorological, sociodemographic, preventive, and epidemiological data. A total of 72 models were evaluated, with top performers from spatiotemporal models, supervised PCA, and semi-mechanistic hhh4 frameworks combined into an ensemble. Using data from 2004-2011 for development, 2012-2016 for cross-validation, and 2017-2022 for evaluation, the ensemble model integrated five individual models to forecast dengue incidence up to three

SUBMITTER: Draidi Areed W 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12507206 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature