Predicting the invasion risk of Bactrocera dorsalis in Italy under climate and land cover change.

ABSTRACT: Bactrocera dorsalis, the oriental fruit fly (OFF), is a highly polyphagous and multivoltine invasive insect threatening over 600 fruit crop species globally. Originating in Asia, OFF has spread to Africa, Europe, and the United States. This study assessed the current and future potential distribution of OFF in Italy, a likely entry point for its invasion into Europe. Climate and land cover changes projected for 2070 and 2100 were considered. Potential connectivity corridors were identified, and habitat suitability was evaluated within orchards and vineyards. Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) and connectivity analyses revealed a dramatic increase in suitable habitats for OFF under future scenarios. The potential distribution is projected to expand on average by over 1600% under mild conditions

SUBMITTER: Bernardo U 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12508463 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature