Trends and projection of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Hubei Province, china: an age‒period‒cohort modeling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is a global public health problem, particularly in China. Effective TB control is essential for achieving the World Health Organization's End TB goal. This study aimed to analyze the age, period, and cohort effects on TB incidence trends from 2004 to 2023 and project the future TB burden until 2033 in Hubei, China.

Methods

Incidence data of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) from 2004 to 2023 were obtained from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System. Age‒period‒cohort (APC) modeling was applied to analyze the effects of age, period, and cohort on PTB incidence. Bayesian age‒period‒cohort (BAPC) analysis with integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) was used to project PTB incidence from 2024 to 2033. We applied the decomposition algori

SUBMITTER: Zhang Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12512524 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature