Modeling the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Kenya.

ABSTRACT: This study examines the spatial diffusion of COVID-19 across Kenyan counties using gravity based and spatial autoregressive (SAR) models. We model transmission as a one way process originating from Nairobi, which reported Kenya's first confirmed case and serves as the country's Main center of mobility, commerce, and governance. Using county level data on confirmed cases, population, gross domestic product, poverty rates, household count, and access to media, we estimate multiple Linear and SAR regressions to identify structural and spatial determinants of disease burden. By July 2021, the extended gravity model demonstrated strong explanatory power ([Formula: see text]), with distance from Nairobi, number of households, poverty rate, and television access emerging as significant predictors

SUBMITTER: Korir EK 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12512616 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature