Forecasting the spatial spread of an Ebola epidemic in real time: Comparing predictions of mathematical models and experts.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Ebola virus disease outbreaks can often be controlled, but require rapid response efforts frequently with profound operational complexities. Mathematical models can be used to support response planning, but it is unclear if models improve the prior understanding of experts.

Methods

We performed repeated surveys of Ebola response experts during an outbreak. From each expert, we elicited the probability of cases exceeding four thresholds between 2 and 20 cases in a set of small geographical areas in the following calendar month. We compared the predictive performance of these forecasts to those of two mathematical models with different spatial interaction components.

Results

An ensemble combining the forecasts of all experts performed similarly to the two mod

SUBMITTER: Munday JD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12513718 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature