When crops fail, forests follow: Agricultural shocks and deforestation in Zambia.

ABSTRACT: As climate change makes agricultural production shocks more frequent and severe, it is vital to understand their effect on farmer welfare, land use, and deforestation. Theoretically, a change in agricultural productivity could increase or decrease deforestation by changing demand for agricultural land and/or through the consumption of forests as a coping strategy. This paper uses the introduction of a crop pest to sub-Saharan Africa to estimate the effect of a negative agricultural productivity shock on deforestation. Using primary household data, we first find that farmers who were exposed to higher levels of fall armyworm saw substantial decreases in yield and food security. Using estimates of fall armyworm suitability in conjunction with machine-learning models of maize yields and defor

SUBMITTER: Ordonez PJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12519083 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature