Estimating the transmissibility of the 2025 chikungunya fever outbreak in Foshan, China: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Following the onset of an index chikungunya case on July 8, 2025, a significant outbreak occurred in Foshan, Guangdong Province, China. This study aimed to quantify the outbreak's transmissibility between June 16 and July 21, 2025.

Methods

Data were obtained from local Government, Statistics Bureau, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the relevant literature. We employed a transmission dynamic model that integrated human host-vector transmission to estimate the basic reproduction number ( R0 ). The key parameters of the model were calibrated using early-phase limited surveillance data on the cumulative number of cases. We calculated the correlation coefficient to evaluate the accuracy of this calibration. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to quantify

SUBMITTER: Zhao Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12529789 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature