Modeling Influenza Antiviral Strategies: Reducing Burden and Preventing Resistance.

ABSTRACT: Annually, influenza epidemics lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide many more hospitalizations. The antivirals baloxavir and oseltamivir improve outcomes and limit virus spread, but their widespread use may accelerate the emergence of drug-resistant influenza variants, particularly in young children. Using a data-driven model, we assess various age-stratified antiviral treatment strategies, in terms of reducing both illness and the risk of resistance. In a typical influenza season in the United States, administering baloxavir to 20% of symptomatic individuals >5 years old would be expected to reduce the median disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost by 32.3%, but with a 26.4% risk of resistance transmitting widely. If those patients instead received oseltamivir, DALYs lost

SUBMITTER: Pasco R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12530949 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature