Global climate mode resonance due to rapidly intensifying El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

ABSTRACT: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences climate variability globally, encompassing various other modes of variability, and thus represents a key predictable climate signal on seasonal timescales. Yet, its response to greenhouse warming remains uncertain, with models projecting a range of outcomes. Here, we demonstrate that in response to warming, a state-of-the-art high-resolution climate model simulates a rapid transition from a moderate-amplitude irregular regime, as observed in the current climate, to a highly regular oscillation with intensifying amplitude. This behaviour can be attributed to increasing air-sea feedbacks, which approach criticality in the second half of this century, and growing atmospheric noise. As ENSO intensifies in this model, it synchronizes with other

SUBMITTER: Stuecker MF 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12531379 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature