Geographical shifting of cholera burden in Africa and its implications for disease control.

ABSTRACT: Cholera outbreaks cause substantial morbidity and mortality in Africa, yet changes in the geographic distribution of cholera burden over time remain uncharacterized. We used surveillance data and spatial statistical models to estimate the mean annual incidence of reported suspected cholera for 2011-2015 and 2016-2020 on a 20-km grid across Africa. Across 43 countries, mean annual incidence rates remained at 11 cases per 100,000 population, with 125,701 cases estimated annually (95% credible interval (CrI): 124,737-126,717) from 2016 to 2020. Cholera incidence shifted from western to eastern Africa. There were 296 million people (95% CrI: 282-312 million) in high-incidence second-level administrative (ADM2) units (≥10 cases per 100,000 per year) in 2020, 135 million of whom experienced low

SUBMITTER: Perez-Saez J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12532610 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature