Cancer mortality trends in China from 2013-2021 and projections to 2030.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends in cancer mortality in China from 2013-2021 and project the future trends through 2030.

Methods

This study was based on the China Causes of Death Surveillance Dataset, which covers 2.37 billion person-years. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated using Segi's world standard population and the trends were evaluated via Joinpoint regression. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used for mortality projections. Contributions of demographic changes (population size and age structure) and risk factors to the mortality burden were quantified using the decomposition analysis.

Results

The combined ASMRs for all cancers decreased annually by 2.3%, driven by significant declines in esophageal (4

SUBMITTER: Liang X 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12533753 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature