Mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and meet the Paris Agreement have been offset by economic growth.

ABSTRACT: Projecting future climate change is important for implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to limit greenhouse gas emissions to a level that would keep the global average temperature increase to 2100 below 2 °C. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change uses emissions scenarios for projecting climate change, but since 2017, an alternative fully statistical Bayesian probabilistic approach has been developed. Both approaches rely on an equation that expresses emissions as the product of population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, and carbon intensity, namely carbon emissions per unit of GDP. Here, we use data on these quantities for 2015-2024 to probabilistically assess the changes in climate change prospects associated with post-Paris emissions. These show that carbon

SUBMITTER: Jiang J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12534177 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature