Assessing future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin through dynamical downscaling.

ABSTRACT: Projecting future tropical cyclone (TC) activity is challenging due to climate model limitations. In this study, we downscaled the bias-corrected CMIP6 dataset for the medium (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios by the end of the 21^st century (2071-2100) using the Weather Research and Forecasting at 20 km horizontal resolution to investigate future changes in TC activity in the North Atlantic basin (NATL). The results reveal a statistically significant (p < 0.05) reduction in TC density in the tropical and central NATL and in the mean annual TC frequency. Although the average annual number of major hurricanes (category 3+) is projected to increase under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, non-statistically significant signals for a change in TC intensity were detected. Fu

SUBMITTER: Perez-Alarcon A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12538132 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature