The evolution of an epidemic: age-period-cohort modelling of mesothelioma in Casale Monferrato, 1990-2021, with projections to 2042.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In Italy, the area of Casale Monferrato in the Piedmont Region has experienced a high burden of malignant mesothelioma (MM) due to environmental contamination from Eternit, the country's largest asbestos-cement plant, which operated from 1907 to 1986. The severity of the health impact led to the area's designation as a Site of National Interest (SIN) for environmental and health concerns. Despite the 1992 asbestos ban, the MM epidemic persists, driven by the disease's long latency. Using data from the Piedmont Malignant Mesothelioma Registry (RMM), we describe MM trends in Casale Monferrato's SIN from 1990 to 2021 and project future incidence through 2042 using Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models.

Methods

Incidence rates (1990-2021) were estimated as smooth functions o

SUBMITTER: Giraldo M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12542330 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature