Risk assessment and mitigation evaluation of future yellow fever outbreaks under different climate scenarios: Insight from a case study of Brazil.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Yellow Fever (YF), a disease typically transmitted to humans by infected mosquitoes, is endemic to regions such as South America. Climate change plays a crucial role in exacerbating the spread of YF.

Model

We formulate a mathematical model of YF transmission with a case study of the region in the southeastern Brazil with a well documented 2017/2018 outbreak. We validate the model using historical data, then run simulations to generate projections of future outbreaks under different climate scenarios in 2050. We also evaluate the outcomes of different mitigation measures such as emergency vaccination programs.

Findings

Our results suggest that under all projected climate scenarios, increasing temperatures will yield a marked increase in the total number of c

SUBMITTER: Ramaj T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12543279 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature