Forecasting age-standardized incidence rates of gastric cancer from 1990-2050 in Japan according to H. pylori prevalence and eradication scenarios.

ABSTRACT:

Background

This study examines the influence of H. pylori eradication policies on gastric cancer incidence rates in Japan utilizing nationally representative registry data. It evaluates the impact of the H. pylori eradication policies introduced in 2000 and 2013, along with future eradication scenarios, on age-standardized gastric cancer rates.

Methods

Data from prefectural cancer registries and national health surveys were analyzed using Poisson regression and autoregressive integrated moving average models. Predictors such as H. pylori prevalence, alcohol consumption, salt intake, body mass index, and smoking prevalence were included. The study assessed past policies by comparing incidence rates with and without the policy changes of 2000 and 2013. Future policies were eva

SUBMITTER: Sigel B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12549766 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature