Trends and projections of ischemic heart disease burden in the Belt and Road countries and China from 1990 to 2021: a study based on the 2021 global burden of disease.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To assess the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in Belt and Road Initiative countries from 1990 to 2021 and to predict future trends.

Methods

Utilizing data from GBD 2021, we analyzed incidence, mortality, and other indicators using Joinpoint analysis, NetDrift methodology, age-period-cohort models, and Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) predictive modeling.

Results

In 2021, China bore the heaviest IHD burden with an incidence of 7.3 million cases and a mortality rate of 1.96 million. The United Arab Emirates experienced over a tenfold increase in incidence/prevalence rates, while Djibouti saw a fivefold rise in deaths/DALYs. Uzbekistan's standardized incidence rate increased by 107.2%, and Lesotho's mortality rate rose by 78.7%. A higher proportion of a

SUBMITTER: Liang P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12551016 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature