Projection of age-standardised mortality rates for 23 cancer types in India: a nationwide projection until 2030 using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To project the future burden of cancer mortality in India by forecasting age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for 23 major cancer types up to the year 2030, providing crucial evidence for long-term health planning and resource allocation.

Design

A retrospective analysis and time-series forecasting study. Participants Aggregated, national-level cancer mortality data for the population of India from 2000 to 2019 were used.

Participants

Aggregated, national-level cancer mortality data for the population of India from 2000 to 2019 were used.

Methods

Annual ASMR data for 23 cancer types were obtained from the Global Cancer Observatory. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average was employed to forecast ASMR until 2030. For each cancer site, the model wi

SUBMITTER: Shaji A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12551512 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature