Cohort-resolved excess mortality in Germany (2000-2024): Patterns and implications for the SARS-CoV-2 era.

ABSTRACT: Understanding the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on mortality requires more than aggregate statistics. While whole-population indicators have informed policy, they risk concealing subgroup-specific patterns. We analysed all-cause mortality in Germany from 2000 to 2024 using a weekly, cohort-resolved framework across 15 age groups to detect excess and under-mortality before, during, and after the pandemic. Expected mortality was modelled using exponential trends from two decades of pre-pandemic data. Deviations from expectation were quantified as normalised excess all-cause mortality rates (NEAMR), enabling the identification of significant, age-specific anomalies. We found sustained NEAMR in adults aged 75-79 and 35-49 from late 2021 through 2024-patterns absent in whole-population tren

SUBMITTER: Rockenfeller R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12558607 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature