Generalizing population RT-qPCR cycle threshold values-informed estimation of epidemiological dynamics: Impact of surveillance practices and pathogen variability.

ABSTRACT: Population-level viral load distributions, measured by RT-qPCR or qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values from surveillance testing, can be used to estimate the time-varying reproductive number ([Formula: see text]) in real-time during COVID-19 outbreaks. However, it remains unclear whether this approach can be broadly applied to other pathogens, sources of virologic test data, or surveillance strategies beyond those specifically implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong. We systematically evaluated the accuracy of Ct-based [Formula: see text] estimates using simulated epidemics under different surveillance testing systems and pathogen viral kinetics. Using area under the ROC curve (AUC) to assess accuracy in detecting epidemic growth or decline, we found that case ascertainment rates

SUBMITTER: Lin Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12571249 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature