Disease burden attributable to high temperature between 1990 and 2021 in South Asia and Southeast Asia, with projections to 2045.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Disease burden attributable to extreme high temperature requires more attention amid dramatic climate change, especially in South Asia and Southeast Asia.

Methods

We analyzed comprehensive estimates from the GBD 2021 Study, examining mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across 369 diseases and 88 risk factors. This study employed joinpoint regression analysis and Age-Period-Cohort modeling to examine time trends from 1990 to 2021 and projected disease burden up to 2045 by incorporating demographic forecasts and a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model.

Results

South Asia and Southeast Asia contributed more than half of the global death number attributed to high temperature. In 2021, South Asia recorded 209,537 deaths and Southeast Asia recorded 32

SUBMITTER: Cai J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12573994 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature