Global excess tuberculosis mortality during COVID-19: a country-level modeling study of policy and development correlates.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global tuberculosis (TB) control efforts, leading to a surge in TB-related excess mortality, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Pandemic mitigation measures, such as lockdowns, reallocation of healthcare resources, and reduced access to diagnosis and treatment, contributed to delayed TB care and disease progression. Quantifying this collateral damage is crucial to bolstering health system resilience.

Methods

We estimated country-level excess TB mortality between 2020 and 2023 using annual TB mortality data reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). Our approach leverages the SubEpiPredict toolbox of the ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework, calibrated to pre-pandemic trends (2010-2019) to forecast expected

SUBMITTER: Karami H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12577229 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature