Spatial prediction of Spodoptera frugiperda expansion in India using MaxEnt under shifting climate regimes.

ABSTRACT: The Fall Armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda, is a highly invasive pest threatening graminaceous crops and global food security due to its aggressive feeding and migratory behavior. Abiotic factors, particularly climatic variables, along with the spatial distribution of maize, its primary host, play a critical role in shaping the geographic distribution, survival, and development of S. frugiperda. As a recent invader in India, understanding its potential spread under changing climate conditions is essential. This study applied the MaxEnt model using CMIP6 climate projections (BCC-CSM2-MR and MIROC6) under SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios to forecast FAW distribution. The model showed strong predictive accuracy (AUC > 0.85; TSS = 0.59), with annual temperature range (Bio7) and maize distributi

SUBMITTER: Murugasridevi K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12586441 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature