A forensic engineering framework for flood management of cascade reservoir systems.

ABSTRACT: Extreme floods are increasing in frequency and severity, exposing critical gaps in reservoir operation policies and post-event accountability. This study proposes a forensic engineering framework to evaluate and optimize flood management in cascade reservoir systems. The framework is applied to Iran's Karkheh Basin, Iran, and combines scenario-based analysis, a dynamic Standard Operating Policy (SOP) extended to gated spillways, and real-time optimization using inflow forecasts. Five scenarios were analyzed for the April 2019 flood: (1) actual historical operation, (2-3) SOP-based rule curves driven by observed and forecasted inflows, (4) ideal hindsight operation, and (5) rolling-horizon real-time optimization with SVR (monthly) and LSTM (daily) inflow forecasts embedded in a Genetic Algo

SUBMITTER: Zeinali M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12594786 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature