Mitigating norovirus spread on cruise ships: a model-based assessment of diagnostic timing and isolation.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Acute gastroenteritis outbreaks caused by noroviruses are a common public health issue on cruise ships. Understanding the main drivers of sustained outbreaks is critical for evaluating the effectiveness of preventive interventions such as the isolation of infected individuals.

Methods

We analysed a line-list of 121 cases from a norovirus outbreak on a cruise visiting Mediterranean ports (cumulative incidence among passengers 9.7%). We used a Bayesian inference model to reconstruct likely transmission chains, taking into account different transmission settings and the isolation of cases after diagnosis. We then calibrated a branching process model to simulate alternative isolation scenarios and estimate their effectiveness in reducing transmission.

Results

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SUBMITTER: De Bellis A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12640874 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature