Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ecological Vulnerability to Climate Change in Northwestern Sichuan's Terrestrial Ecosystems of China: Conservation Implications.

ABSTRACT: Climate change intensifies ecosystem vulnerability in mountainous regions, particularly in Northwestern Sichuan's Terrestrial Ecosystems (TENS), where complex terrain amplifies impacts on biodiversity and carbon dynamics. This study assesses spatiotemporal ecological vulnerability using the IPCC exposure-sensitivity-resilience framework. We applied autoregressive modeling and a 5-year moving window to monthly NDVI, temperature, and precipitation data from 1983 to 2022. Results show vulnerability index (VI) increases latitudinally from south to north, driven by inverse temperature correlations. Longitudinally, VI forms a V-shaped pattern due to topographic and monsoon influences. Wetlands are most vulnerable (VI ≈ 0.48) from precipitation sensitivity, while forests show lowest vulnerability

SUBMITTER: Jiao C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12650117 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature