Trajectories of neighborhood-level overdose risk predictions for prioritization of harm reduction services: Results from the PROVIDENT study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Neighborhood-level overdose risk may vary over time. In Rhode Island, we developed and validated a machine learning model to identify the 20 percent of census block groups (CBGs) at the highest predicted risk of future overdose death. We updated this model periodically between November 2021 and August 2024 to generate six sets of predictions. This study aims to characterize the trajectory of each CBG's predicted overdose risk over time across these six periods.

Methods

In each prediction period, CBGs were designated as "high risk" or not designated as "high risk" based on our model's 20 percent predicted overdose risk threshold. We implemented sequence analysis to describe unique trajectories in each CBG's risk designation over each prediction period. We then calc

SUBMITTER: Skinner A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12651951 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature