Escalated heatwave mortality risk in sub-Saharan Africa under recent warming trend.

ABSTRACT: Evidence from high-income countries indicates populations are adapting to frequent heatwaves, but similar trends in resource-constrained regions remain unknown. We analyzed mortality data from 11 Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems across sub-Saharan Africa (2005 to 2015) to examine temporal changes in heat-related mortality risk. Contrary to global trends, our findings suggest that heat vulnerability is increasing across African populations. Nighttime heatwave mortality risk increased significantly between 2005 to 2010 and 2011 to 2015 [OR from 1.02 (95% CI: 0.87 to 1.13) to 1.18 (95% CI: 1.13 to 1.23)], while daytime heatwaves showed no significant impact. Compound heatwaves transformed from nonsignificant to significant risk factors [OR = 1.11 (95% CI: 1.03 to 1.22)]. Males show

SUBMITTER: He C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12652248 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature