Modelling excess mortality from non-communicable diseases during wartime: application to the Gaza Strip, occupied Palestinian territories.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Patients with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) face multiple risks of excess mortality during wars. The Gaza Strip's health services have been severely disrupted by Israel's campaign since October 2023. We developed a modelling approach to project NCD excess mortality under three defined scenarios.

Methods

We projected excess mortality from cancer (lung, colorectal, and breast), cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus type 1 patients, and chronic kidney disease requiring haemodialysis from February 2024 to August 2024. We defined three scenarios of treatment coverage: (i) ceasefire, (ii) status quo, and (iii) escalation. We used pre-war incidence and prevalence data to probabilistically simulate deaths among patient cohorts exposed to varying time-dependent mort

SUBMITTER: Abukmail H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12659381 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature