Historical and current spatiotemporal patterns of wild and vaccine-derived poliovirus spread.

ABSTRACT: Outbreaks of vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) have become a major threat to polio eradication. However, variations in spatiotemporal spread have not been quantified. Here we analysed cVDPV2 cases and wild poliovirus type 1 sequences to uncover spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of poliovirus spread. Between 1 May 2016 and 29 September 2023, 3,120 cVDPV2 poliomyelitis cases were reported across 75 outbreaks in 39 countries. Outbreaks had a median observed circulation of 202 (range 0-1,905) days and a median maximum distance of 231 (range 0-4,442) km. Wavefront velocity analysis of large outbreaks revealed a median velocity of spread of 2.3 (5th-95th percentile 0.7-9.2) km per day. International borders were associated with a slower velocity of spread (P < 0.001), in periods with

SUBMITTER: Candido DDS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12669034 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature